Baseball Prospectus on Wednesday released its annual PECOTA projections, which always makes for an interesting read.
The sabermetric system developed by Nate Silver not at all surprisingly this year projects the Phillies to, at 69-93, finish with baseball’s worst record. It has the Twins winning 70 games and the Rockies and Royals – yes, the reigning American League champs – winning 72.
PECOTA projects the Dodgers, not Max Scherzer and the Nationals, to claim baseball’s best record, at 97-65. It pegs the Nats to win 91 games, the Mets to finish in second in the NL East with their first winning record since 2008 at 82-80 and the Marlins to go 81-81. It has the Braves finishing five wins better than the Phillies.
PECOTA doesn’t exactly go out on a limb here to project that the Phillies will struggle to score runs in 2015. It has them scoring 577, which would be their worst output (not counting strike-shortened seasons) since … wait for it … 1971 (558).
This news is just piling on at this point. The Philly sports scene is pretty bleak right now. The Eagles managed to miss the playoffs, It looks the Flyers will do the same, The Sixers won’t be favored again this year unless they play the Washington Generals, and now the Phillies are predicted to repeat as the worst team in the league. In short:
It’s not like this comes as a surprise but can we at least pretend like the garbage fire that is the Phillies don’t exist until we absolutely have to? Just bury our heads in the sand until the season starts, build up some irrational sense of hope, and then watch the first two months of competitive baseball before we throw in the towel.
So my message to Baseball Prospectus when it comes to Philadelphia sports: